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Expect Congress to hold hearing5 to examine evidence that hundreds of thou5and5 ofUighur5 have been locked in re-education camp5-then brace your5elf for Mr Trump to expre55 5ympathy for Chinese claim5 that iron-fi5ted rule is needed to prevent Islamist terrori5m.

China'5 re5pon5e to all this may 5urpri5e. Though will begin amid much talk of tariff war5 between America and China, that i5 not how the year will end.

China'5 leader5 will not enjoy Mu51im countrie5 will become more vocal about repre Schoolchildren learn that the origins of the modern Chinese state lie in that anti-imperialist outcry: thousands of students, frustrated at their government's supine response to terms in the Treaty ofVersailles that handed control of German-held portions of China, including the port city of Qingdao, to Japan, instead of returning them.

In the interests of domestic stabllity, the leaders in Beijing may prove more conciliatory than many fear.

Fittingly, galvanised the women's movement in China. None of this shields activists from the Chinese state's brutality.

Police have detained the most vocal students and put others under watch. Among its myriad interpretations, that is perhaps its greatest legacy.

Chinese side, trade tensions with America will smoulder in rather than explode. In the short term, the logic of competition will push China and America to different areas of confrontation.

But it is only in that tariffs will really begin to affect China's economy. Some advisers to President Donald Trump think that China will collapse under the weight of these levies.

Yet the trade war will force China to shift policy in 1vays that it would prefer not to. Already it has made it easier for cities to issue infrastructure bonds.

These moves will help cushion China's economy from weaker exports, but at the cost of taking on more debt. China has fought hard over the past few years to prop up its currency and curb money outflows.

The central government,. In it cut tariffs on products such as machinery and textiles, reducing its average tariff from 9. In it will take them even lower.

There are some issues on which China will not yield, however. American negotiators have demanded that it dismantle its system of industrial subsidies and stop forcing foreign companies to transfer technology to its firms.

China denies doing the latter despite evidence to the contrary and views industrial policy as essential to moving up the value chain. It is not about to change its stance on either.

Except the rowdy fans on this breezy evening are not aiming their displeasure at the referee. They are trying to drown out China's national anthem, which is played before every match featuring Hong Kong's team.

An edict criminalising disrespect for the anthem already applies in mainland China. But those who disobey may find themselves having to face the music.

In China, this evolution is happening even faster and going even further than it is in other parts of the world.

That is of course welcome. Many people will not hesitate to donate generously for disaster relief, or to help the sick and the poor.

However, it takes time both to solicit donations and to get the money into the hands of the needy. So far, 9. And our Voice Donation. If we look further ahead, the ageing population will put mounting pressure on health systems in China and globally.

Let us embrace these opportunities, not only to drive business growth but also to create value for underprivileged communities.

That will make for unpredictability, ineffectiveness and prolonged chaos. Jiliadists will exploit any space to regroup.

That could lead to more repression, intensify palace intrigues and deepen the country's cold war with Qatar andTurkey. Russia is the only country to enjoy friend!

During Beroea will not feel quite so alone. People will flow in, not just out. The influx will help Syria's private banks recapitalise and recover the confidence to resume lending.

Syrian refugees in Europe, flush with welfare benefits worth many times Syria's average wage, will send remittances so t.

But Gulf states think. The Syrian pound will rebound. American sanctions will frustrate the World Bank's efforts to participate in the world's greatest reconstruction project.

They will organise pledging conferences and resume official contacts, if not with the president, then with his provincial governors.

They will pass laws allowing them to seize absentee refugee property. And they will strive to remake Syria in their own image, before outsiders swarm in and remake it in theirs.

China is making inroads, too. But China will mostly limit itself to pursuing economic deals. We have been here before. Much the same is happening today.

The economy will shrink, along with trade and investment. And prices will keep rising, causing yet more pain for ordinary Iranians.

That won't happen. Those that have not already pulled out of Iran will do so in Mr Rouhani says Iran has enough foreign reserves to survive two years of MrTrump's economic offensive.

The country's "resistance economy", developed in response to previous sanctions, aims for self-sufficiency. But for most Iranians, it means hardship.

People already hoard food. But corruption investigations loom. Some in the Trump administration are hoping that the economic turmoil will lead to regime change.

The falling rial will also help the regime, because Iran's oil revenue comes in foreign currency.

Still, when making predictions 15 13 14 17 18 16 about Iran, humility is in order. Few people foresaw the last revolution. Fearful for their House of Saud, older princes will privately sneer he is damaged goods.

They will find an audience. His boycott of Qatar spread rancour. Prince Muhammad has ruptured mechanisms hitherto used for smooth transitions.

The more ruthless he becomes, the larger his circle of enemies will grow, and the more harshly he will repress them.

Friction will increase with erstwhile Western allies. The Russians, the Chinese and even the Iranians, he will recall, politely stayed silent whenWestern capitals fanned global outrage at Khashoggi's death.

An amnesty for political prisoners? If only, he might ponder, Khashoggi were around to offer advice. But what does hosting the Special Olympics mean for wider society?

Nahyan, intends its influence to permeate society long after the last starting pistol has been fired.

Yet even if the numbers are wrong, their trend is clear. And where Nigeria leads, much of Africa will follow. These projections underpin much of how the world sees Africa over coming decades.

Others see only peril, pointing to tlle risks of terrorism, conflict and mass migration to Europe if Africa cannot provide jobs and improved lives for the.

Like most other poor parts of the world, Africa's fertility rate has been falling since the Os. But the rate of decline slowed temporarily around , as development stalled in many parts ofAfrica.

In the two millennia since, Europe has continued to feel detached from the lands beyond the great desert.

On the other side lies an arid and sparsely populated band of countries called the Sahel. But in it will climb up the West's agenda.

Fearful of African migration, Europe has pumped money into development and border security.

Its population is exploding. In Niger an average mother will have about seven children. Their prospects are grim. The Sahelian governments are fragile and barely operate outside major towns.

Corruption is endemic. Food production is not keeping up with population growth. And climate change is hitting the region hard.

In many areas the desert is slowly advancing. The diminishing resources are leading to deadly clashes between pastoralists and farmers.

Insecurity is spreading to Burkina Faso. As families move from farms to cities the costs and benefits of having lots of children change.

In the city he or she is an extra mouth to feed and mind to educate. Women in Africa's capital cities have two to three fewer cl1ildren than their rural peers.

Children living in cities are much more likely to go to school. The uN's deadliest mission is not in Congo or the Middle East; it is in Mali, where over peacekeepers have been killed.

Europe may step up its involvement in the region. Cities need not outgrow their infrastructure so quickly. The murder rate has been almost halved.

Yet the optimism of has vanished. The murder rate began to tick upagain. Such was the inheritance of Cyril Ramaphosa when hetookover as president in February.

The excitement of has long since dissipated. The year-old Mr Buhari spent much of in London being treated for an undisclosed illness.

Some felt the economy was better-run in his absence. So who will win? Relative calm and democracy at tl1e federal level will obscure the small fires burning in some of Nigeria's 36 states.

The war against Boko Haram in tl1e north-east is stalling; the jihadists roam the countryside unimpeded.

Bandits prowl the oil-rich Niger Delta. Things will not fall apart in the year ahead, but Nigerian voters have little reason to believe they will improve.

What if he succeeds? And autocratic regimes are often the worst offenders in spreading "fake news".

It has started already. As well as being paternalistic, it is unlikely to work. Some existing proposals, such as improving media literacy, creating safe spaces onlineor tax.

Twitter's algorithmic timeline helped tl1ings go viral more easily. So did WhatsApp's easy-forwarding features. The new time-counting features are akin to road signs and rest stops on the information superhighway.

Expect to see more signs, and speed bumps, in Consider the events of And, for years, Myanmar's military rulers operated an online propaganda campaign through manufactured pop-star fan accounts.

The model also works beyond television. More politicians will follow suit in Goebbels and FDR alike used the power of radio. Reagan adapted his presidency to tele-.

Finland has one of the world's lowest infant-mortality rates. Worldwide, some 2. Scotland started giving them out in ; New South Wales in Australia will do so from This is an ideal formula for states' media operations.

But nationalist parties are gaining strength. The terms "globalist" and "nationalist" are, of course, inexact.

The economics behind his America First nationalism are dublous. In this respect, the Trump coalition was similar to the coalition that voted in favour of Brexit in The globalist-nationalist divide will grow in signifi-.

The sport"s nvo governing bodies hope chese will modernise and speed up play. Different continents, same confrontation The nationalist-globalist divide will also make itself felt in elections in Africa and Asia.

Indonesia will hold presidential and parliamentary elections in April. These elections are part of an emerging worldwide debate about the future of globalisation.

But the rise of nationalist-populist parties all over the world is threatening to change this. In the issue will receive plenty of attention.

But the criminals still have the upper hand. Efforts to eliminate the trade provide an object lesson in the law of unintended consequences.

South-East Asian populations have already crashed. Poacl1ers are moving to Africa. Or take rhinos.

Demand for rhino horn fell after China in banned its sale and that of tiger bone. It was used in traditional Chinese medicine for fevers, rheumatism and gout.

And China in eased the ban anyway. MrTrump, for example, has been even Trumpier than we expected. We thought he would merely bad-mouth the Iran nuclear deal, but he ditched it.

The lesson for ? Expect disruption. Then, instead of going on honeymoon, they will return to work.

When gay couples began clamouring for the right to marry, in the s, many governments tried to fob them off with half-measures. In some countries, civil partnerships were reserved for gays.

At first few seemed interested. In , the first year of civil partnerships in the Netherlands, just 1, heterosexual couples signed them, compared with 3, gay couples.

But they caught on. In more than 17, opposite-sex couples were partnered in the Netherlands. In the number of new civil unions among straight people , was close to that of new marriages , In England, the civil partnerships that were introduced in were intended only for gay couples.

There has been progress, he says, noting how much harder it is for criminals to trade wildlife products on the. Why do straight people even want semi-skimmed marriage?

FuLl-fat marriage has changed. That is why marriage ages are rising, divorce rates are falling, and weddings have become so lavish and gushing.

For many, the more humdrum the ceremony, the better. That dispute, at least, is in no danger of dying out.

Locally does it. In China President Xi Jinping will cling to his pro-climate rhetoric, but not back it up with actions.

James Fransham from our data team turned to the wisdom of crowds including prediction markets, financial futures, expert panels to gauge the lilcelihood of certain events.

The bugs in journaJism fiendishly engage the bugs in our psychology. People thus think tornadoes kill more victims than asthma attacks, which are in fact 80 times as lethal.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. But demography will make tomorrow's electorate more urban, educated, secular, ethnically diverse and millennial.

But to understand the world we should follow the trendlines, not the headlines. Behind these lofty words is the idea that aJl humans share some core experiences, values and interests, and that no human group is inherently superior to all others.

And the best way to foster such co-operation is to ease the movement of ideas, goods, money and people across the globe.

The liberal world of the early 21st century is more prosperous, healthy and peaceful than ever before. For the first time in human history, starvation kills fewer people than obesity; plagues kill.

Was it ? Nevertheless, people are losing faith in the liberal order. What might replace it? Without some universal values and global organisations, rival nations cannot agree on any common rules.

Balancing nationalism with globalism This nihilistic position is nonsensical. These are nuclear war, climate change and technological disruption.

City-states are not more natural than empires, and nation-states are not more natural than tribes. It is true that sometimes different loyalties might collide, and then it is not easy to decide what to do.

But who said life was easy? Life is difficult. Deal with it. Similarly, sometimes we need to put the national interest first, but there are occasions when we need to privilege the global interests of humankind.

What is your worst-case scenario, and what is your vision for the best-case scenario? At the same time, humanitarian support is chronically underfunded.

Let's look at the facts. The world's poorer countries are bearing the brunt of the burden. We cannot assume that they will continue to do tbls irrespective of policies in wealthier nations.

Second, for all the generosity of taxpay-. We've managed to bring the numbers down before. I met some of the many people who returned to their homes after the end of the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia.

Not the parody of strength involved in tough talk against. We live in divisive times. We are being tested today.

We have learned albeit reluctantly to putMarmite on toast as well as in rice congee. They have learned albeit reluctantly to use peanuts and spices in satay sauce, instead of peanut butter and cream.

AI is already maldng our lives easier, and its progress will continue to produce useful applications.

First, there is the use of the word "snowflake" to criticise younger generations, who are perceived as thin-skinned and less resilient than their forebears.

But those who invoke "politica1 correctness" often use it for more cynical means. It is an illibera1 argument masquerading as the opposite.

Gathering of the grassroots Amid cowardice, cruelty and suffering, there are heroes: what if they all got together?

Jamal Khashoggi,. Leaders like this are bullies. If they are growing in number it is because many other poliucians are mediocre.

This places at risk not only their own futures, but everyone else's as well. But there is hope. Their valour is unalloyed and selfless. It Iooks Jike Angkhana Neelapaijit from Thailand, who has fought tirelessly against enforced disappearances ever since her husband disappeared in Worldwide, they are not co-ordinated.

Activists of the world, unite! What if they were? Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder, OeepMind. No institution Madeleine Albright, former US secretary of state.

They are the antidote to the loss of trust in institutions of all kinds, and the loss of faith in global co-operation.

The implications are alarming. In advanced economies, rising inequality is contributing to the withering away of entire communities and ways of life.

And it is fuelling the growing tendency to replace deliberation with demonisation, partnership with parochiatism.

Measuring up. Such exclusion, whereby inequality of outcomes feeds through to inequality of opportunities, hurts productivity because it deprives the economy of the sldlls and talents of those who are excluded.

What about gender equity? And the beauty is that men need not lose out. In advanced economies, policies such as parental leave and providing access to afFinance would benefit enormously from greater diversity.

There is also the need to boost female Jeadership in the corporate world. Finance would benefit enormously from greater diversity.

Realising them is for the future: for our children and their children's children. Even oil and gas production will tick up.

Mongolia, which fell out of the ranking for as commodities markets slumped, returns for as mining activity picks up.

The only major economy in this group is lndia. The economy will settle to its trend growth rate. Disagreements with ultra-nationalists over judicial reform, corruption and electoral changes that would weaken smaller parties threaten the government's slim parliamentary majority.

The country will enter the European exchange-rate mechanism in July ahead of full euro adoption. Denmark GDPgrowth 2.

France GDPgrowth 1. The Social movement to reform the national rail sector, would hurt. Other sacred cows lined up Population 4. Population Population 1.

Vlaams Population The World in from its powerful partners. Greece GDP growth 2. GDPgrowth 1. Superstar age from fiscal restraint and choppy trade.

Hungary GDPgrowth 2. GDPgrowth 3. Two new parties, tenm facing sanctions from the EU over its illiberal policies, but with tailwinds the populist Who Owns the State?

Early elections will give rise to another centre-right coalition. Netherlands GDPgrowth 2. Nevertheless, prime minister Mark Rutte's third government should manage the legislative process for this year at least.

Two convoys of vehicles will retrace the route of the second world war's ill-fated Operation Market Garden on its 75th anniversary in September.

Norway GDPgrowth 1. Poland GDPgrowth 3. Portugal GDPgrowth 2. Growth will fade from its peak. Romania GDPgrowth 3. Expansionary fiscal policy will keep the economy growing.

Countries Slovakia GDPgrowth 3. Slovenia GDPgrowth 3. The economy will lose steam ageing population, but the president as the working-age population shrinks.

Policy GDPgrowth 2. The new government has reduced tensions with the separatist Catalans but is unlikely to settle matters.

Sweden GDPgrowth 2. Switzerland GDPgrowth 1. Turkey GDPgrowth 4. Yet his actions too often have startled the foreign investors needed to sustain Turkey 's economy.

Ukraine GDPgrowth 2. Growth will Oxfordshire, in June. The economy will slow again, while policy leans against the triple challenges of endemic pollution, risk in shadow banking and rural poverty.

Bangladesh 7. The Awami League, in power since , was set to win another parliamentary majority in December The repatriation to neighbouring Myanmar of Rohingya refugees, of whom around 1 m live in Bangladeshi camps, will proceed in , but slowly, leaving Bangladesh to deal with the economic and security consequences.

Controlled descent. HongKong 2. Sm Population. The economy will slow again under the shadow of worsening America-China trade relations. Japan GDPgrowth 1.

The modest results. Policy will prioritise social welfare until the election but swing 20 20 back to business issues afterwards.

Economic growth will speed ahead. Promises of institutional reform will founder-not least the fight against corruption, with vested inter-.

Kazakhstan GDP growth 3. The perennial goal of weaning the economy off oil will remain elusive. Philippines GDPgrowth 6.

NewZealand GDPgrowth 2. Sri Lanka GDP growth 4. Taiwan GDPgrowth 2. Along with employment reforms, these should improve business conditions.

Maturing global demand for consumer electronics will restrain economic growth. The minority Labour-led government under the prime minister, jacinda GDPgrowth 2.

Three ministers in will limit economic growth. GDPgrowth 5. Reform of labour laws and regulatory improvements will also face opposition.

South Korea GDPgrowth 2. GDP growth 3. Uzbekistan GDPgrowth 5. Slow rise. Vietnam GDPgrowth 6. Competing policy approaches will play out within the Communist Party, but single-party rule will persist under the general secretary, Nguyen Phu Trong.

The government's campaign against corruption has raised hackles but will move ahead, as graft is one of the few threats to the party.

Mexico 1. United States 2. The economy will slow after the adrenaline shot of tax cuts in and as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.

However, if GDPgrowth 3. Spending restraint tional court striking down term limits. The Asia-Pacific is divided. GDPgrowth 4. GDPgrowth 2.

Horacio Cartes. Cuba GDPgrowth 1. Algeria GDPgrowth 2. Peru GDPgrowth 4. Angola GDPgrowth 2. Egypt GDPgrowth 5.

Ethiopia GDPgrowth 7. At best, his slate of social and economic reforms will run into the. Sanctions will slash oil exports and shake business confidence, pushing the economy into recession.

Narrowing the gap. When talks conclude, the non-sectarian prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, will stay. Given the outlook for 1.

Movement of the prime minister, Saad Hariri. Tensions will distract ministers Saudi Arabla from confronting red tape and graft.

Zumaand out. GDPgrowth 9. But Western-backed rebels 6. After years of war, ulist reforms, including the first phase The president, Uhuru Kenyatta, and the main opposition leader, Raila Odinga, have settled their differences.

Most won't bother. South Africa GDPgrowth 1. Zimbabwe GDPgrowth 2. Stockmarkets could gyrate if it miscues.

Strn in revenues. Britain's banks face new barriers to doing business but the City remains Europe's financial hub. But smaller, greener cars will not Oil prices have risen again, so airlines World GDP and trade have it all their own way.

Sport-utility end of The trade feud between America technology to the point where drivers, up the aerospace industry.

Vehicle tion to the road. But impetus from largest customers, could start flying face. Still, defence spending in New rules for electric out of emerging markets.

The catch for fighter-jet programme, Lockheed ties, but world trade will still slow. Crowded airports will mean long delivering the system in Business environment.

Saudi Arabla is best placed to ramp up output. Stocks of oil are tighter, too. The main worry for is therefore volatile oil prices.

But emerging markets crave LNG. Chinese gas imports will surpass Japan's, perhaps before is out. With home-grown stalwarts fending off global players, JPMorgan Chase predicts China's online video industry could get out of the red in The picture will brighten further as more Chinese viewers subscribe to content behind paywalls.

China will finally become the world's largest film market. Even so, Hollywood will struggle to capture Chinese audiences given domestic, Japanese and lndian competition.

Take the Environmenta! Protection Agency's legal battle with California over emissions targets. Yet it wou! Total financial assets prudent standards.

China's giant Ant. The kets. America's banks lndia. Trade tensions could upend markets for crops that America supplies in vast quantities to Restof China.

American States Consumers' support for green products will stunt the growth of some foods: environmental damage will depress demand for palm oil used in margarine and other products.

Research into Alzheimer's disease will recover from setbacks as the focus shifts to identifying early blomarkers of the disease. Health-care spending.

The Congressional Budget Office projects 3m fewer Americans will enroll for coverage. Nigeria will roll out its delayed basic health package-and aim to eradicate polio its last case was in Success would make Afgnanistan and Pakistan the last places afflicted.

Globally, the hunt for cheap medical staff will heat up. Progress will come from innova-. The rivalry between America and China will threaten trade in but spur investment in infrastructure.

Both have. America is not building homes fast Prices in the EIU's global metals index enough to stop prices from rising-as will barely rise as demand eases.

For many Americans, staying partly to demand from electric-vehicle put is the only option. That will feed makers.

So too will DIY firms. China's Zijin tors there. Zijin wants to bring it to production rapidly. China's desire to take air out of its economy will mean further efforts to Retailing deter property speculation.

For the most e-commerce companies like Amazon part, buildings seem impervious to tech disruption, but change is coming. The situation is particularly life-threatening in America, where among property agents.

Latin America will recover slightly from the effects of low commodity prices, which weakened currencies and fuelled inflation.

Conventional telecoms firms need new sources of revenue. As the internet reaches more consumers there, demand for data will spur investment.

Yet everyone will have to contend with the increasing difficulty of persuading consumers to replace their devices: sales have flattened out.

The picture for dealmaking is mixed. But America's current crop of light-touch regulators could give more deals the nod. Soaring demand and the recovery in oil prices will force tourists to dig deeper in Tourist arrivals will nonetheless hit another record, at nearly 1.

Over one-third of that sum will go to Europe, with France still the top destination. Terrorism and natural disasters pose risks. Sm in As good as it gets American bosses should preparefor life to get harder Patrick Foulis Schumpeter columnist, The Economist.

Yes, profit margins were high, but sales were sluggish. In things began to change as the economy built up steam under President Barack Obama.

The stockmarket is expensive. Meanwhile, three threats Ioom. The second danger is trade. Businesspeople suspect that economists are being alarmist when they yell about tariffs.

The impact on the bottom line so far has been tiny. But that could change if the dispute with China escalates and hurts Iucrative supply chains, such as.

For the past 30 years American companies have benefited from globalisation. Parliaments haul tech executives in front of committees and lambast them for failing to stop hate speech, terrorist cells or child abuse.

In the social-media era, major controversies can flare up within hours. Big issues, requiring companies to respond, will keep emerging.

Individual American states are easy to defy but the federal government or the European Union are another matter.

This group of companies includes giants such as Kraft Foods and Hilton. Given all this, it is tempting to assume that will bring nothing but progress for women in work.

Alas, it will not. Yes, over the longer term the direction of travel seems clear. The worries for are threefold.

Undoubtedly the British press will seize upon firms where overall gaps have widened, citing this as evidence of regression.

Silicon Valley's original startup. As an ecosystem, it has repeatedly spawned and embraced disruption, rebounding from every bust and defying critics who have predicted its demise.

There are three reasons for this shift. The giants everyone loves to hate Big tech firms should brace themselves for more criticism Alexandra Suich Bass.

Expect even more aggressive tactics in the coming year. These punches will not do much harm to tech firms, however. American legislators may also try to pass new consumer-friendly privacy rules, in line with those already adopted in Europe.

Second, Silicon Va! Because the giants are so successful, they can afford to throw huge sums in cash and stock at employees, even middle managers, making it extremely challenging for startups to hire.

Online clothes-shoppers return more t. Brands over-stock because they fail to predict customer preferences correctly and then have to slash prices, damaging their margins.

But the real opportunity lies in analysing online behaviour to predict next year's trends. But changes are coming, courtesy of carmakers and tech giants, as three trends intertwine.

Tesla, which has led the top end of the market, will face more competition. The new Jaguar! Its three runways will.

Daxing airport in Beijing is due to open in autumn Yet it is not the size of these airports that ruffles feathers in the aviation business.

American carriers have campaigned for their government to rip up open-skies deals with the Gulf. Using Evs makes sense.

The two French firms will serve Paris before spreading farther afield. General Motors hopes to overtake th.

But the question for the firms involved is how to make money. Expect more tie-ups between the two camps in as they try to find roadworthy business models.

American and European airlines will step up their anti-subsidy campaigns in to little avail.

Baseball is in fact far less parochial than most Eu-. World serious? And MLB has held regular-season games in countries near Mexico, starting in and far Australia, since in the hopes of extending its reach.

The season will open in Tokyo. In theory, England should offer fertile ground. But it's not the world I signed up for.

Now substitute music with entrepreneurship. Despite startup culture gaining visibility from hoodie-wearing cEos, entrepreneurship has been declining for decades.

Almost all industrialised countries have seen similar declines. Entrepreneurship won't die in , but it is endangered.

There are other obstacles too. It's lonely. It's fundamentally irrational. They don't necessarily want to take over the world, just to carve out their corner of it.

Think about those who flocked to San Francisco in Was the Gold Rush really about gold? We can't let it fade away. The good news?

Yet since then, Russia's natural-gas exports to Europe have reached record highs. That could halt Nord Stream 2 in its tracks.

The Despite these advances, not all will go Russia's way. What if Snap's shares slip further? Going high As attitudes towards cannabls mellow in North America, consumer spending will soar Natasha Loder health-care correspondent,.

MrVilla is riding the crest of an exciting new wave in the world of pot. Opportunity beckons. But it will also seek out first-time consumers.

Britain, like many other countries, has recently opted to allow the medicinal use of cannabls. Lawmakers insist its move was not the first step to broader legalisation.

Both assertions have always been illogical. There is growing pressure for legislation to make it clear that each state may regulate pot as it sees fit, without fear of legal action against individuals and firms from the federal government.

Even Coca-Cola, the giant of soft drinks, has admitted to being interested. Changes in climate have led to hot, dry conditions that increase the risk of fires; 17 of the Earth's 18 warmest years have occurred since Years ago, and ahead of the market, my company decided to begin divesting from such sources of electricity as coal.

The price of solar electricity has fallen below that of most conventional sources. Other American states have done the same. In aggregate they represent an enormous distributed network of energy consumption and storage.

Energy production is also becoming. Sharing will further cut costs and increase reliabllity in the system. Digital comparues will drive some of the largest demands for energy.

The safety of t. We will develop systems that will help us thrive and, over time, even reverse the damaging legacy of fossil fuels.

This is the vision of the future we urgently need to espouse. But if something cannot go on for ever, it will stop. The leading American,stocks have done much better than emerging-market or European stocks see chart.

That in large part reflects the strength of America's economy. The questions for investors are: how soon will it stop? And just as important, exactly how?

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Monitoring everything that people can work out what happened if something goes wrong. China, ics in the business world.

That will start to change in But self-ID goes much further. That is both illiberal and dangerous, as will become clearer in The Sunday Times collated figures showing that sexual offences are far more common in mixed-sex pool changing-rooms than in single-sex ones.

There is still time to search for ways to protect them without harming others. From Cairo to Caracas, despots most of them posing as democrats have locked up dissidents, murdered protesters and shut newspapers.

If voters tire of him, they can sack him in , and he cannot serve more than eight years. None of this is true of China's president, Xi Jinping.

Second, resist every assault on pluralism. In many countries strongmen will claim that shadowy enemies are subverting the state, undermining the national culture or insulting the majority religion.

The space for dissent in China will shrink as artificial intelligence empowers the surveillance state.

In Tanzania President John Magufuli, aka "the Bulldozer", will sack or arrest anyone who gets in his way. Hungary's prime minister, Viktor Orban, will vow to protect his people from Muslim migrants; meanwhile, his cronies will transmute power into gold.

European taxpayers should stop subsidising both regimes. The outlook is not all gloomy. Africa will do better in than before. Muhammadu Buhari, the ailing president, will accept the result if he loses.

Donors should help him. Autocratic governments often sow the seeds of their own demise. When dissent is silenced, leaders stop hearing wise but unwelcome advice.

When checks and balances are dismantled, graft metastasises and weakens the regime. Truth to power. Even Russia's Vladimir Putin is looking weaker.

Surveys suggest that less than half of voters back the regime. Outsiders should maintain sanctions on Mr Putin's cronies.

They should also answer the Kremlin's propaganda with real news. Those who think democracy the least bad form of government must speak up for the values that underpin it, including truth itself.

The business of providing vegan meals is booming. McDonald's has started selling McVegan burgers. Giant food firms are c! Even Big Meat is going vegan, it seems.

But most nationa! That cou! This wi!! Nike has been telling people to "Just Do It" since the late s. YouTube wi!! In , it will substitute "Knowledge" with "Your Stolen Data".

American Express's! Pedants wi!! In Adidas wi!! For the ad industry, certainly. Europe's single currency turns The one-day games are held across England and Wales, leading up to the final at Lord's in London in mid-July.

Good deeds proliferate around the world during Random Acts of Kindness Week. And June 28th is the centenary of the Treaty of Versailles, which formally ended the first world war exactly five years after the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, which triggered it.

Japan stages the Rugby World Cup-the first time the tournament has gone to Asia. The Prussian polymath was born years ago this month.

The starting gun is fired in Doha, Qatar, at the World Athletics Championships, held every two years.

The killing stirred the country's independence movement. The tournament was moved from , to avoid clashing with the football World Cup, and expanded from 24 teams to The Irst regularly schedu ed international flight took off years ago, from London to Paris.

That small dot crossing the surface of the sun is Mercury. Compiled with the help of contributions from www.

Those rivals will span the spectrum. Introduced in , this process had limited support then and has become less popular since.

For the first half of its life, things appeared to go smoothly enough. Then crises in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain exposed the flimsiness of its foundations.

Structural repairs hastily followed. The euro zone is more resilient as it enters The economy has been exP.

The euro zone's changing relationship with its nearest trading partners will test its resilience. America's president, Donald Trump, could finally lose patience with Germany's huge current-account sur-.

Uncertainty surrounding such potential shocks will keep growth in check. Hungary, will cause controversy.

Mr Macron's efforts to subvert the Spitzenkandidat process with his own, new group of liberal pro-Europeans will grab headlines.

So will the far left. It will either adapt, or fail. It is an open secret that she did not want to run again in What changed her mind was not the refugee drama, which will count as her legacy, but the election of President Donald Trump.

Sooner than most other Germans, Mrs Merkel grasped that Trumpism nullified every assumption that Germany had made since The German elite gradually accepted this logic.

Others echoed him. Conflicts include the Paris climate agreement Germany for, America against , the Iran. The disagreement spans fights about trade and the dominance-and tax avoidance-of American internet firms in Europe.

And again and again, they will discover two things. Most will stick to their accustomed stance of denial. In , Germans will understand that-and despair.

The reverse metamorphosis has already begun. Although approval ratings are an imperfect measure of Mr Putin's true support, given his control over the country's media and his elimination of political alternatives, their trends are nonetheless revealing.

Both have been on the scene since the early s and neither inspires much trust among voters. But spectators have seen it all before and don't botherto read their politicians' empty promises.

Pessimism about the country's direction is rising. The cent. The euphoria from the annexation of Crimea has worn off.

Russians have tired of hearing about the war in Syria. Repression against young activists and social-media users, which grew in , could intensify further.

Rather, Ukraine will muddle through and improve gradually, despite all the upheavals. The French will want to see the results of his reforms-in growth and jobs-if they are to indulge his often-imperious leadership style.

Mr Macron wiIJ shrug off criticism and press ahead with his domestic programme. Apprehension will also greet Mr Macron's attempt to reform unemployment benefits and reorganise the pension system.

Mr Macron will push the fight against climate change in particular when France hosts the G7 in Biarritz in August.

It is all too easy to caricature his policies thus. It has reasons to celebrate. First, the good news. Its,footprint will also expand.

But the alliance is not immune to the forces that have roiled Western politics of late. One source of tension is the growth of populist parties, such as Italy's Northern League.

But southern allies, such as Greece and Spain,. But the SociaJists have only 84 of its seats. Catalonia will again loom large. Many exhibltions will mark this, including one at t.

Italians will start the year still poorer in real terms than they were in But the government disagrees.

Will it? Politicians who do what they say they are going to do are rare beasts. The European economy has faJtered.

Yet the Brexit deal will leave uncertainties. And her Brexit plans provoke divisions in her party, which looks tired after eight years in office.

So the political focus after Brexit will switch to the question of who should take her place.

She will argue that she is best placed to supervise the post-Brexit trade. But could prove that they were right all along.

Medicines might run out. But Mr Corbyn is the most left-wing leader the Labour Party has ever had. But like MrsThatcher, she is likely to lose.

Most Remainers, and EU officials, would jump for joy. But it might further confuse the situation. The coming year could see that great illusion shattered.

Brexit referendurn of the British economy has held up better than expected. The purchasing power of pay-packets rernains below where it was before the financial crisis of Will the economy continue to surprise the pundits?

That would prornpt another bout of cost-push inflation, eating away at Britons' wages once again. Many of their wares contain goods irnported frorn abroad, which have become rnore expensive.

That could help raise Britain's rate of productivity growth, which has been stagnant since the financial crisis.

Less governrnent spending rneans less help for those who need it rnost: those living in Britain's post-industrial areas, its young people and its elderly.

But while there is widespread recognition that something fundamental changed in , there is also denial about the necessary political response.

Into t. The lessons are clear. Tl1e old orthodoxy was not working for most people even before the crash. The formula of deregulation, privatisation, tax cuts for the wealthy and debt for the rest had already fuelled grotesque inequality and precipitated the crisis itself.

We are not yet in government. Left, right and the new centre. And those policies are popular. Labour has rediscovered its roots and purpose.

If not, others will surely fill the vacuum. That might sound ridiculous. Congress is quarrelsome but unlikely to resort to mass brawling as it did one night in No one is predicting civil war.

Yet the comparison underlines how pervasive America's divisions now are. The northern and southern media were highly partisan.

Opposing the judges. Similar circumstances are apparent today. They are increasingly unlikely to marry, work or socialise with one another.

Mr Trump views this as an opportunity. But what if the temptation proves too great? Even if the House impeached the president, the.

Naming the likely nominee is mere guesswork. Perhaps after four years of the Trump show, dullness will seem exciting.

And too many of those they do have are from the east or west coast. That will not deter the Democrats. The fallout will dominate Congress. There is little prospect of its passing important Jegislation, save for an outside chance of an infrastructure package.

Who needs Congress? Mr Trump's foreign policy, the traditional resource of presidents frustrated at home, will show more substantial progress.

His effort to denu-. If that is right, then Democrats should pick the candidate least likely to activate Republican hostility. That is the second-narrowest margin in history.

For American liberals, two fears loom largest. Change of direction But are they? Americans may not have to wait long to find out.

In the court struck down regulations in Texas requiring abortion providers to hold difficult to obtain admitting privileges at! Steve Bannon, Mr Trump's former chief strategist, wanted to "deconstruct the administrative state"; Mr Kavanaugh looks likelier to slightly restrain it.

The justices do not operate in nine sealed vacuums; they affect each other. Baby-boomers, born between and , have been the most numerous cohort in America for more than five decades.

All four presidents since have been of that generation. But in , their turn at the top will end. Often confrontational and moralistic, they were inclined to view politics in apocalyptic terms and waged culture wars first against prior generations and then within their own.

They attended college more than did any previous cohort, and served in the armed forces less.

Rebellious as youths, they turned ultra-protective as parents. It is pugnaciously democratic. Nobody would now dispute America's grandeur, though many fear that today it teeters more than towers.

What would America's greatest poet make of his country on his 2oot. With their racial diversity and left-leaning views, millennials have the numbers to reset American politics.

But when? Boomers may hold the stage long after their act has gone stale. What about today's rampant partisanship? And yet politics figures little in his work.

But what connects Americans to each other? This is today's most pressing question, and it is as much rnetaphysical as political.

Whitman wrote 1vhen Arnerica was just beginning to define itself, both before and after its CivilWar. Though war does not loom today, Arnerica's p olarisation is nearly as great.

Americans live in 1vholly separate political tribes that fear and loathe each other. Of those who do not he 1vas silent.

Nones already outnumber Catholics and mainline Protestants. In they could also outnumber evangelicals. The oldest generations are the most religious; the youngest are the most nonbelieving.

Indeed, people of all generations are leaving churches. The Catholic church has suffered the most dramatic exodus.

But the country is secularising. But for the mid-term elections he bounded back. Michelle Obama followed him into the spotlight.

This is just the start of the Obamas' return to prominence. These will focus on stories of volunteering and civic work and should appear in late Mr Obama's foundation will also start to take shape in Chicago.

Builders will break ground for the presidential centre in and will then spend three years on construction. Mr Obama wants to remind historians and voters of his achievements, such as the economic recovery, which Mr Trump claims as his own.

Nearly four decades after it closed its doors. Yet no one knows where exactly this somewhat mystical spot lies. Mr Powell has himself emphasised this point.

Some hawks will squawk that the Fed should go faster. Optimists also hope to see the proportion of to year-old men in employment rise back towards its pre-recession high.

Yes, it could make firms raise wages. But the sceptics worry that companies will simply increase prices too. Still, discrimination has persisted.

The past decade has seen this What we need, starting in , is more democracy trend reversed with alarming speed and efficiency-often at the hands of those who claim today's voters are engaging in widespread fraud.

But his efforts to tackle crime and corruption will prove disappointing. Markets will look for an early pension reform.

But will his heart be in it? But he does not tower, as either hero or villain, over the country that appeared in his wake.

No modern Mexican politician invokes his name. Will Mex. I shun him on the th anniversary of his arrival, or confront his complex legacy?

It reads: "Thiswas neither triumph nor defeat. His star has waxed and waned over the years. More Venezuelans will seek refuge in neighbouring countries, swelling the.

The low point came in the midth century, when Mexico lost half its land to the United States. Cortes may end up honoured, decried or ignored.

An air of frustration will hang over Latin American diplomacy. What if the economy gets even worse? But after five years in office, the halo surrounding the former tea-boy from Gujarat has faded.

Mr Modi's political magic button, marked "resentment at ruling elites", no longer produces Pavlovian roars of approval.

With his perfectly pressed pastel-coloured kurtas and hugging matches with world leaders, Mr Modi himself now looks pretty elite.

His party and its platform, which seemed an unstop-. This has alienated important constituencies.

One of these is businesspeople, many of whom had seen Mr Modi's powerful mandate as an opportunity to push through sweeping free-market reforms.

As for economic growth, Mr Modi has produced solid results, but his immediate. The Indian government will. There are few decent mid-range places to stay between fancy ryokan and run-down business hotels.

More oftheworld's best skiing in Hokkaido. Activities abound, immigration officers are required immediately. So it Tokyo's Narita airport, will move ahead.

More businesses makes sense that Japan's companies and government need to accept credit cards in the cash-based country.

But more Westerners in the mix. It reckons they would that is not enough. Some 29m people visited in , and the needs to act as marshals at the event.

Rather, in efforts will concentrate on making the Japanese towards the tourism boom. Signage around cities is increasingly in venirs.

The government needs to persuade visitors that English as well as Japanese. But the battle lines have shifted in the world's third-largest democracy.

Jokowi's five years in charge have changed things too. Turmoil in ot. In September t. Another issue is the president's apparent closeness to China.

Indonesia's man of the people will veer towards populism. The election is his to lose. Men in uniform have either seized control, as in Thailand, or exercised it behind the scenes, as in Pakistan, or wantonly abused civilians, as in Myanmar.

In each of the past five years, the generals who run Thai-. Would chaos follow? The case could take years to settle. The current administration already excels at workarounds.

North Koreans in the gulag, to peer admiringly into the "Beast", the American president's armoured limousine. Certainly, the economic, security and strategic implications, should all go right, are mind-boggling.

Perhaps this time he will get to sit behind the Beast's wheel. And that official rate proved too strong to sustain. That means rupees stretch much further in India than the equivalent amount of pounds do in Britain.

You cannot buy global bragging rights at purchasing-power parity. Since India's chase has proceeded faster than even some optimists once imagined.

India is not the first colony to match the economic clout of its Iormer ruler. Brazil and America long ago eclipsed Portugal andBritain respectively.

Yet they are not always auspicious. Mexico's moments of symbolic triumph have proven fleeting. It drew close again in , onlyto plunge into the tequila crisisof Indonesia provides another cautionary tale.

Its GDP exceeded that of the Netherlands in Its GDP shrank in dollar terms for the next three years. During the country must also decide how to commemorate the th anniversary, in , of CaptainJames Cook's claiming the continent for Britain.

In late , protesters sprayed it with graffiti. Aboriginals trace their forebears back 50, years.

Many see Cook's "discovery" more as an invasion that left them second-class people. In t. Mr Shorten's agenda will take at least some heat out of the history wars.

Uncertainty about America's commitment to the Indo-Pacific region will only complicate the picture.

Yet even here dangers lurk. Immigration, in turn, accounts for about two-thirds of population growth. China'5 brutal treatment of the Muslim Uighur minority in the far-we5tern region of.

Expect Congress to hold hearing5 to examine evidence that hundreds of thou5and5 ofUighur5 have been locked in re-education camp5-then brace your5elf for Mr Trump to expre55 5ympathy for Chinese claim5 that iron-fi5ted rule is needed to prevent Islamist terrori5m.

China'5 re5pon5e to all this may 5urpri5e. Though will begin amid much talk of tariff war5 between America and China, that i5 not how the year will end.

China'5 leader5 will not enjoy Mu51im countrie5 will become more vocal about repre Schoolchildren learn that the origins of the modern Chinese state lie in that anti-imperialist outcry: thousands of students, frustrated at their government's supine response to terms in the Treaty ofVersailles that handed control of German-held portions of China, including the port city of Qingdao, to Japan, instead of returning them.

In the interests of domestic stabllity, the leaders in Beijing may prove more conciliatory than many fear.

Fittingly, galvanised the women's movement in China. None of this shields activists from the Chinese state's brutality. Police have detained the most vocal students and put others under watch.

Among its myriad interpretations, that is perhaps its greatest legacy. Chinese side, trade tensions with America will smoulder in rather than explode.

In the short term, the logic of competition will push China and America to different areas of confrontation.

But it is only in that tariffs will really begin to affect China's economy. Some advisers to President Donald Trump think that China will collapse under the weight of these levies.

Yet the trade war will force China to shift policy in 1vays that it would prefer not to. Already it has made it easier for cities to issue infrastructure bonds.

These moves will help cushion China's economy from weaker exports, but at the cost of taking on more debt. China has fought hard over the past few years to prop up its currency and curb money outflows.

The central government,. In it cut tariffs on products such as machinery and textiles, reducing its average tariff from 9. In it will take them even lower.

There are some issues on which China will not yield, however. American negotiators have demanded that it dismantle its system of industrial subsidies and stop forcing foreign companies to transfer technology to its firms.

China denies doing the latter despite evidence to the contrary and views industrial policy as essential to moving up the value chain.

It is not about to change its stance on either. Except the rowdy fans on this breezy evening are not aiming their displeasure at the referee.

They are trying to drown out China's national anthem, which is played before every match featuring Hong Kong's team.

An edict criminalising disrespect for the anthem already applies in mainland China. But those who disobey may find themselves having to face the music.

In China, this evolution is happening even faster and going even further than it is in other parts of the world. That is of course welcome.

Many people will not hesitate to donate generously for disaster relief, or to help the sick and the poor. However, it takes time both to solicit donations and to get the money into the hands of the needy.

So far, 9. And our Voice Donation. If we look further ahead, the ageing population will put mounting pressure on health systems in China and globally.

Let us embrace these opportunities, not only to drive business growth but also to create value for underprivileged communities. That will make for unpredictability, ineffectiveness and prolonged chaos.

Jiliadists will exploit any space to regroup. That could lead to more repression, intensify palace intrigues and deepen the country's cold war with Qatar andTurkey.

Russia is the only country to enjoy friend! During Beroea will not feel quite so alone. People will flow in, not just out.

The influx will help Syria's private banks recapitalise and recover the confidence to resume lending.

Syrian refugees in Europe, flush with welfare benefits worth many times Syria's average wage, will send remittances so t.

But Gulf states think. The Syrian pound will rebound. American sanctions will frustrate the World Bank's efforts to participate in the world's greatest reconstruction project.

They will organise pledging conferences and resume official contacts, if not with the president, then with his provincial governors.

They will pass laws allowing them to seize absentee refugee property. And they will strive to remake Syria in their own image, before outsiders swarm in and remake it in theirs.

China is making inroads, too. But China will mostly limit itself to pursuing economic deals. We have been here before. Much the same is happening today.

The economy will shrink, along with trade and investment. And prices will keep rising, causing yet more pain for ordinary Iranians.

That won't happen. Those that have not already pulled out of Iran will do so in Mr Rouhani says Iran has enough foreign reserves to survive two years of MrTrump's economic offensive.

The country's "resistance economy", developed in response to previous sanctions, aims for self-sufficiency. But for most Iranians, it means hardship.

People already hoard food. But corruption investigations loom. Some in the Trump administration are hoping that the economic turmoil will lead to regime change.

The falling rial will also help the regime, because Iran's oil revenue comes in foreign currency. Still, when making predictions 15 13 14 17 18 16 about Iran, humility is in order.

Few people foresaw the last revolution. Fearful for their House of Saud, older princes will privately sneer he is damaged goods.

They will find an audience. His boycott of Qatar spread rancour. Prince Muhammad has ruptured mechanisms hitherto used for smooth transitions.

The more ruthless he becomes, the larger his circle of enemies will grow, and the more harshly he will repress them.

Friction will increase with erstwhile Western allies. The Russians, the Chinese and even the Iranians, he will recall, politely stayed silent whenWestern capitals fanned global outrage at Khashoggi's death.

An amnesty for political prisoners? If only, he might ponder, Khashoggi were around to offer advice. But what does hosting the Special Olympics mean for wider society?

Nahyan, intends its influence to permeate society long after the last starting pistol has been fired. Yet even if the numbers are wrong, their trend is clear.

And where Nigeria leads, much of Africa will follow. These projections underpin much of how the world sees Africa over coming decades.

Others see only peril, pointing to tlle risks of terrorism, conflict and mass migration to Europe if Africa cannot provide jobs and improved lives for the.

Like most other poor parts of the world, Africa's fertility rate has been falling since the Os. But the rate of decline slowed temporarily around , as development stalled in many parts ofAfrica.

In the two millennia since, Europe has continued to feel detached from the lands beyond the great desert. On the other side lies an arid and sparsely populated band of countries called the Sahel.

But in it will climb up the West's agenda. Fearful of African migration, Europe has pumped money into development and border security.

Its population is exploding. In Niger an average mother will have about seven children. Their prospects are grim.

The Sahelian governments are fragile and barely operate outside major towns. Corruption is endemic. Food production is not keeping up with population growth.

And climate change is hitting the region hard. In many areas the desert is slowly advancing. The diminishing resources are leading to deadly clashes between pastoralists and farmers.

Insecurity is spreading to Burkina Faso. As families move from farms to cities the costs and benefits of having lots of children change.

In the city he or she is an extra mouth to feed and mind to educate. Women in Africa's capital cities have two to three fewer cl1ildren than their rural peers.

Children living in cities are much more likely to go to school. The uN's deadliest mission is not in Congo or the Middle East; it is in Mali, where over peacekeepers have been killed.

Europe may step up its involvement in the region. Cities need not outgrow their infrastructure so quickly. The murder rate has been almost halved.

Yet the optimism of has vanished. The murder rate began to tick upagain. Such was the inheritance of Cyril Ramaphosa when hetookover as president in February.

The excitement of has long since dissipated. The year-old Mr Buhari spent much of in London being treated for an undisclosed illness.

Some felt the economy was better-run in his absence. So who will win? Relative calm and democracy at tl1e federal level will obscure the small fires burning in some of Nigeria's 36 states.

The war against Boko Haram in tl1e north-east is stalling; the jihadists roam the countryside unimpeded.

Bandits prowl the oil-rich Niger Delta. Things will not fall apart in the year ahead, but Nigerian voters have little reason to believe they will improve.

What if he succeeds? And autocratic regimes are often the worst offenders in spreading "fake news". It has started already.

As well as being paternalistic, it is unlikely to work. Some existing proposals, such as improving media literacy, creating safe spaces onlineor tax.

Twitter's algorithmic timeline helped tl1ings go viral more easily. So did WhatsApp's easy-forwarding features.

The new time-counting features are akin to road signs and rest stops on the information superhighway. Expect to see more signs, and speed bumps, in Consider the events of And, for years, Myanmar's military rulers operated an online propaganda campaign through manufactured pop-star fan accounts.

The model also works beyond television. More politicians will follow suit in Goebbels and FDR alike used the power of radio.

Reagan adapted his presidency to tele-. Finland has one of the world's lowest infant-mortality rates. Worldwide, some 2.

Scotland started giving them out in ; New South Wales in Australia will do so from This is an ideal formula for states' media operations.

But nationalist parties are gaining strength. The terms "globalist" and "nationalist" are, of course, inexact. The economics behind his America First nationalism are dublous.

In this respect, the Trump coalition was similar to the coalition that voted in favour of Brexit in The globalist-nationalist divide will grow in signifi-.

The sport"s nvo governing bodies hope chese will modernise and speed up play. Different continents, same confrontation The nationalist-globalist divide will also make itself felt in elections in Africa and Asia.

Indonesia will hold presidential and parliamentary elections in April. These elections are part of an emerging worldwide debate about the future of globalisation.

But the rise of nationalist-populist parties all over the world is threatening to change this. In the issue will receive plenty of attention.

But the criminals still have the upper hand. Efforts to eliminate the trade provide an object lesson in the law of unintended consequences.

South-East Asian populations have already crashed. Poacl1ers are moving to Africa. Or take rhinos. Demand for rhino horn fell after China in banned its sale and that of tiger bone.

It was used in traditional Chinese medicine for fevers, rheumatism and gout. And China in eased the ban anyway.

MrTrump, for example, has been even Trumpier than we expected. We thought he would merely bad-mouth the Iran nuclear deal, but he ditched it.

The lesson for ? Expect disruption. Then, instead of going on honeymoon, they will return to work. When gay couples began clamouring for the right to marry, in the s, many governments tried to fob them off with half-measures.

In some countries, civil partnerships were reserved for gays. At first few seemed interested. In , the first year of civil partnerships in the Netherlands, just 1, heterosexual couples signed them, compared with 3, gay couples.

But they caught on. In more than 17, opposite-sex couples were partnered in the Netherlands. In the number of new civil unions among straight people , was close to that of new marriages , In England, the civil partnerships that were introduced in were intended only for gay couples.

There has been progress, he says, noting how much harder it is for criminals to trade wildlife products on the.

Why do straight people even want semi-skimmed marriage? FuLl-fat marriage has changed. That is why marriage ages are rising, divorce rates are falling, and weddings have become so lavish and gushing.

For many, the more humdrum the ceremony, the better. That dispute, at least, is in no danger of dying out. Locally does it.

In China President Xi Jinping will cling to his pro-climate rhetoric, but not back it up with actions. James Fransham from our data team turned to the wisdom of crowds including prediction markets, financial futures, expert panels to gauge the lilcelihood of certain events.

The bugs in journaJism fiendishly engage the bugs in our psychology. People thus think tornadoes kill more victims than asthma attacks, which are in fact 80 times as lethal.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. But demography will make tomorrow's electorate more urban, educated, secular, ethnically diverse and millennial.

But to understand the world we should follow the trendlines, not the headlines. Behind these lofty words is the idea that aJl humans share some core experiences, values and interests, and that no human group is inherently superior to all others.

And the best way to foster such co-operation is to ease the movement of ideas, goods, money and people across the globe.

The liberal world of the early 21st century is more prosperous, healthy and peaceful than ever before. For the first time in human history, starvation kills fewer people than obesity; plagues kill.

Was it ? Nevertheless, people are losing faith in the liberal order. What might replace it? Without some universal values and global organisations, rival nations cannot agree on any common rules.

Balancing nationalism with globalism This nihilistic position is nonsensical. These are nuclear war, climate change and technological disruption.

City-states are not more natural than empires, and nation-states are not more natural than tribes. It is true that sometimes different loyalties might collide, and then it is not easy to decide what to do.

But who said life was easy? Life is difficult. Deal with it. Similarly, sometimes we need to put the national interest first, but there are occasions when we need to privilege the global interests of humankind.

What is your worst-case scenario, and what is your vision for the best-case scenario? At the same time, humanitarian support is chronically underfunded.

Let's look at the facts. The world's poorer countries are bearing the brunt of the burden. We cannot assume that they will continue to do tbls irrespective of policies in wealthier nations.

Second, for all the generosity of taxpay-. We've managed to bring the numbers down before. I met some of the many people who returned to their homes after the end of the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia.

Not the parody of strength involved in tough talk against. We live in divisive times. We are being tested today.

We have learned albeit reluctantly to putMarmite on toast as well as in rice congee. They have learned albeit reluctantly to use peanuts and spices in satay sauce, instead of peanut butter and cream.

AI is already maldng our lives easier, and its progress will continue to produce useful applications. First, there is the use of the word "snowflake" to criticise younger generations, who are perceived as thin-skinned and less resilient than their forebears.

But those who invoke "politica1 correctness" often use it for more cynical means. It is an illibera1 argument masquerading as the opposite.

Gathering of the grassroots Amid cowardice, cruelty and suffering, there are heroes: what if they all got together?

Jamal Khashoggi,. Leaders like this are bullies. If they are growing in number it is because many other poliucians are mediocre.

This places at risk not only their own futures, but everyone else's as well. But there is hope. Their valour is unalloyed and selfless.

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